MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe03c21a149a491448e2bbf1ecf475dda335a52074d06bd3a027d8481046ebbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 9c | 1,837$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 37c | 1,430$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.63 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Athletics | 28c | 1,092$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.54 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 61c | 895$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 888.93$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Athletics | 26c | 888.18$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.67 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 620.87$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Athletics | 41c | 505.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.49 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 37c | 488.9$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 11c | 385$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 20c | 352.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 345$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 337$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.32 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 264.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 229.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 218$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Athletics | 24c | 217.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 12c | 211.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 59c | 173.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 36c | 137.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 137.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Athletics | 39c | 131.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 119.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Athletics | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 13c | 94.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 34c | 91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 72.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 67.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 19c | 65.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Athletics | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Athletics | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 46.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Athletics | 42c | 44.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 44.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Athletics | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 33.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Athletics | 78c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 18.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 17.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Athletics | 71c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.