Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa403f6167efca70911a72e1e72f43372e5c2903cae61c65e68bdea1fb97bedee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 1c | 2,937$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 2,029$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,580$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 711.08$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 676.16$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 585.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 12c | 465.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 13c | 429.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 351.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 12c | 324.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 274.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 12c | 239.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 19c | 226.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 223.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 198.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 8c | 187$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 80c | 150.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 16c | 119.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 18c | 110.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 99.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 16c | 94.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 21c | 89.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 86.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 17c | 76.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 20c | 74.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 54.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 71°F or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.