Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31017bb77bd510dc0517753ef9f28e63fd81da58f28da377e76f6f831a85102d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 1,610$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.64 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,379$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 1,040$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 641.13$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 34c | 621.86$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.38 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 56c | 499.95$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 76c | 451.72$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.24 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 407.14$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 369.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 355.58$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 334.96$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 52c | 320.27$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Yes | 49c | 312.4$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 289.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 53c | 270.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 34c | 256.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 52c | 250.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 244.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 223$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 214.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 48c | 211.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 210.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…6ab5backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 196.61$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 196.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 196.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 42c | 189$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 185.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 185$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 66c | 178.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 175.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 159.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 156.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 155.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 143.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 138.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 35c | 133.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 129.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 123$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 122.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 53c | 122.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 58c | 109.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 106.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 104.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked No | 40c | 102.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 87.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 32c | 83.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 82.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 34c | 77.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 74.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 67.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 51c | 64.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 51c | 63.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 61.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked No | 69c | 53.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 38c | 51.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 73c | 50.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…5f84backed No | 72c | 50.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…5251backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 49.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 50c | 45.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 45.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 44.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 43.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…6c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 43.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 42.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 73c | 38.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 38.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 35c | 37.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 33.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 63c | 30.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 71°F or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.