TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes49c1,610$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.641,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c1,379$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c1,040$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.748,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes49c641.13$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.31,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes34c621.86$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3817658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed No56c499.95$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.97944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c1…7edabacked No76c451.72$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.242669.2%18 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c407.14$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.4512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c369.31$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c355.58$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.358,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c334.96$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.452,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes52c320.27$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.4917352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes49c312.4$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.321250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c289.86$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No53c270.31$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked No34c256.92$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.273557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No52c250.02$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7963255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c244.64$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.892,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2724942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No27c223$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.195,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c214.67$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1134,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes48c211.12$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.014,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes62c210.2$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8422740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…6ab5backed Yes66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No55c196.61$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.994,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No56c196.35$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No56c196.24$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1093,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes42c189$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.271,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes47c185.96$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.931,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c185$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.883,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes66c178.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.951,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No68c175.29$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1592678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c159.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.39,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No53c156.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.52,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c155.51$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c143.61$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.384,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No49c138.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.764,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes35c133.34$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2231454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No33c129.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.544,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes33c123$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes32c122.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes53c122.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.448263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No58c109.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No65c106.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No65c104.85$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb11f…336fbacked No40c102.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.231020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7372837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6723731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c90$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.153,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No56c88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6227461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c87.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd44d…2305backed Yes32c83.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.117213.9%10 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes25c82.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.962,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No34c77.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1128441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.124,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c74.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No67c67.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.681,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No51c64.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0537355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No51c63.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.241,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No52c62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9354253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes33c61.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.340352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed No57c58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.063050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked Yes43c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1542762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab30…053dbacked No69c53.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.73933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes38c51.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked No73c50.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.416619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x81f8…5f84backed No72c50.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.393,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2309…5251backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3321950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2935344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No57c49.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c49.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No31c47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae33…7804backed No50c45.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.17857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes48c45.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.541,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No58c44.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.551,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes34c43.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9362137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ee…6c5fbacked Yes47c43.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes34c42.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8386949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2028762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No44c39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x736e…e8c2backed Yes73c38.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.471637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes74c38.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.885,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes35c37.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.592,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes68c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.882955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes41c33.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.891,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes31c33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8566758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No61c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.728360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No63c30.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.535264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4947…a7b3backed No51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.