Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb14ba96bb69492398f3e5689437da246837fd8e623527d1fc8ca9cb3216f427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 44c | 5,205$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.11 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 45c | 2,863$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 55c | 2,451$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,539$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 60c | 1,390$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 1,257$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 1,189$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 1,158$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 56c | 910.37$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.44 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 56c | 834.78$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.62 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 694.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 679.44$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 54c | 626.73$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.76 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 571.55$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 551.58$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 493.25$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 469.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 391.26$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 54c | 361.93$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 39c | 345.56$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 335.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 335$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 9c | 332.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 324.22$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 285.46$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 36c | 261.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 259.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 253.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 248$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 54c | 240.08$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 239$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 212.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 205.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 205.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 203.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 194.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 179$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 40c | 156.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 139.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 138.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 136$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 47c | 125.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 44c | 114.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 108.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 104.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 52c | 102.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 100.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 99.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 94.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148b…4ce7backed Yes | 16c | 89.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 81.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 39c | 80.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 54c | 80.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 40c | 77.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Yes | 48c | 76.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 40c | 75.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 50c | 74.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 69.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 46c | 69.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 63.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 48c | 61.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 60.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…3c0abacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 31c | 44.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…6c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 43.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…11afbacked Yes | 43c | 42.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 45c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 45c | 35.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 35c | 34.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 33.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…b6ebbacked Yes | 36c | 30.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 71°F or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.