Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4066df5d875a9e26f4a86973f4ee5aa1e5a50994c619735c87dd3fcdd87d0c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 62c | 15,000$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,300 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 38c | 6,578$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,078.62 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 5,067$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 69c | 1,556$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.66 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 34c | 1,099$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.57 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…00e2backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Yes | 39c | 977.82$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 802.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.38 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Yes | 39c | 745.95$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 588.06$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.26 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 500.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.58 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 31c | 409.88$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.9 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 19c | 375.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.28 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 38c | 325$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2265…1b6fbacked No | 67c | 313$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…5f69backed No | 67c | 281$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 41c | 278.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1e7abacked No | 67c | 268$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 19c | 257.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.33 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 67c | 204$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 33c | 190$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 67c | 185$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 173.79$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 67c | 126$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 32c | 112.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 23c | 107.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 20c | 93.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 62c | 87.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 79c | 80.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed Yes | 39c | 68.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Yes | 38c | 62.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed No | 67c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 78c | 53.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed No | 67c | 26.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 65c | 17.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.