Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e350bc1913cfd71b6a3bf100cbc946d23c1a659fc9b1e99b2a3b4fd733407bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 31c | 15,000$4,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 69c | 14,989$10,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646.68 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…00e2backed Yes | 58c | 1,440$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked No | 70c | 463.04$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 422.88$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 61c | 391.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 63c | 304.25$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked No | 78c | 300.26$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 35c | 299.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 63c | 285$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e5…e5cebacked Yes | 46c | 218.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 64c | 214.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 54c | 166.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 42c | 165.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…c7debacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 48c | 111.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 37c | 108.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 46c | 101.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed No | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Yes | 39c | 92.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 87.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 57c | 87.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 36c | 86.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 55c | 81.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 77.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 31c | 55.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 32c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…ab11backed Yes | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed No | 70c | 38.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed No | 69c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 37c | 30.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked No | 70c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed No | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 47cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed No | 70c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.