Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb589181e6ed2d8b58c95120b9c58efc5ae771bf38bdf46ae637d18bb057dddc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 367.85$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 300.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.97 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 299.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed No | 72c | 247$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed No | 67c | 166.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 158.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 153.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…e43ebacked Yes | 72c | 55.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…32c3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.