Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42afb979bee4c595a252585bd233df3fbcbacc7107778a8247df08316f891f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 1c | 2,565$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…41b6backed Yes | 5c | 1,281$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 617.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 501$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 461.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 312.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 6c | 279.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 225.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 205.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 6c | 190.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 29c | 132.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 129.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 128.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…aa2abacked No | 76c | 127.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 47c | 118.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 104.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 20c | 92.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 22c | 91.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 84.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 63.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 59.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 59.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 51.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 50.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 53c | 39.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 33.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 23.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.