Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b17b7493479120bdb41e8e2ec2e9607c63c849ae5f2c65424331afe13e7e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 868.76$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 26c | 822.25$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.9 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 41c | 787.55$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.96 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 733.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 29c | 555.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed No | 10c | 499.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 31c | 300.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.13 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 260.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…d820backed No | 9c | 232.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 18c | 230$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 226.64$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 49c | 201.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 48c | 201$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 74c | 200.27$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 43c | 192.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.67 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 189.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 63c | 171.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 167.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 77c | 146.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 146.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 130.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 8c | 129.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 110.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 46c | 108.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 57c | 101.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 99.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…f7e6backed Yes | 15c | 95.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 12c | 93.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 69c | 91.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 64c | 90.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 85.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…5309backed Yes | 14c | 85.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 73.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 53c | 72.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 17c | 66.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 66.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 72c | 65.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 65.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…7bd9backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 62.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 58.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 51c | 58.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 54.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 57c | 52.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 27c | 51.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 43c | 49.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…9796backed Yes | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 30c | 43.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 42.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 39.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 72c | 31.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 31.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 42c | 30.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 42c | 29.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 27.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 27.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Yes | 45c | 26.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed Yes | 44c | 26.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 50c | 25.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…31b0backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 59c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 23.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 22.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 77c | 18.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…3281backed No | 73c | 16.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 79c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a18…44e3backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.