Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1c970f897fa1a064fff7bf196fb2f2a7ecbe55b8850838267ec7fccb1e2726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 13c | 1,989$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.15 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 51c | 791.52$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.97 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 717.29$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 19c | 637.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 540.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 48c | 515.6$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 501.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 38c | 488.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.6 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 420.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 3c | 314.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 27c | 231.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 197.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 62c | 196.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 183.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 41c | 163.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 153.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 41c | 152.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 50c | 150.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 53c | 137.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 131.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 129.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 46c | 129.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 25c | 123$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 40c | 118.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 55c | 109.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 55c | 105.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 100.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 62c | 100.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 99.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 58c | 99.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 98.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 48c | 94.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 49c | 94.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 91.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 87.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 23c | 85.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 59c | 85.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 32c | 83.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 51c | 82.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 81.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 27c | 72.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 34c | 71.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 63c | 68.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 72c | 67.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 67.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 64.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…7bd9backed Yes | 22c | 62.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 34c | 59.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 58.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked No | 42c | 50.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 36c | 50.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 58c | 47.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 41c | 47.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 32c | 46.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 56c | 45.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 45c | 44.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 40.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 65c | 39.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 36c | 38.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 37.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed No | 52c | 32.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 30.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 27.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 26.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 66c | 25.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.