Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92505e0a608cab52d7814f9acf9fc3d15023ec8b878fc385a19369f9dbb0a6d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 872.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 709.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 34c | 638.84$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 24c | 239.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 232.2$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 230.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 75c | 194.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 191.55$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 27c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…5309backed Yes | 14c | 118.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 103.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 20c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 89.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed Yes | 12c | 89.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 74.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 72c | 67.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 66.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 66.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 53.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 22c | 49.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…6f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 74c | 39.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…82cabacked Yes | 28c | 39.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 36.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 32.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…1746backed No | 69c | 32.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 27.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 75c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 24.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 74c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 70c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 76c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 75c | 13.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.