Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43e3ec4ea998a9498f3c589416d12def7326d397318ed43f791a8defa005ba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,351$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 940.66$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 19c | 666.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked No | 67c | 600$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 60c | 546.99$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 26c | 487.49$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.17 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…fdd9backed Yes | 32c | 449$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 44c | 379.21$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 40c | 348.3$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 25c | 330.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 37c | 271.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…cda2backed Yes | 27c | 245.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 29c | 242.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked No | 67c | 225.91$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…1a2bbacked No | 80c | 209.31$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 32c | 204.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…e2cdbacked No | 72c | 135.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 60c | 129$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 61c | 121.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…4790backed No | 73c | 120.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Yes | 39c | 103.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 64c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed No | 69c | 66.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e0…a1fbbacked No | 75c | 59.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 29c | 52.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 72c | 36.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed No | 80c | 32.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…f2fdbacked No | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208b…680fbacked No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…4ff5backed No | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 43c | 24.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.