NHL · resolved market
AHL: San Diego Gulls vs. Bakersfield Condors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa44900d85acb80aba091b470c32489f49ac1004149759c39257a74d4026880c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Gullsof San Diego Gulls, Bakersfield Condors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Bakersfield Condors | 52c | 5,909$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.98 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked San Diego Gulls | 49c | 1,858$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.42 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed San Diego Gulls | 47c | 762.6$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.37 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Bakersfield Condors | 53c | 742.05$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked San Diego Gulls | 47c | 618.4$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.95 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed San Diego Gulls | 47c | 568.34$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.58 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb314…3f10backed San Diego Gulls | 47c | 550$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bakersfield Condors | 54c | 433.64$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Bakersfield Condors | 44c | 429.75$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked San Diego Gulls | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Diego Gulls | 48c | 246.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…413fbacked San Diego Gulls | 47c | 244.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed San Diego Gulls | 56c | 218.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed San Diego Gulls | 56c | 218.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bakersfield Condors | 57c | 215.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 210.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483b…0679backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 206.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Diego Gulls | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked San Diego Gulls | 47c | 188.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed San Diego Gulls | 47c | 188.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked San Diego Gulls | 46c | 148.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked San Diego Gulls | 49c | 122.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed San Diego Gulls | 49c | 118.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked San Diego Gulls | 48c | 111.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed San Diego Gulls | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 92.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 88.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Bakersfield Condors | 55c | 88.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 85.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed San Diego Gulls | 71c | 77.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked San Diego Gulls | 47c | 65.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Bakersfield Condors | 54c | 47.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked San Diego Gulls | 48c | 40.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Bakersfield Condors | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked San Diego Gulls | 46c | 39.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Diego Gulls | 43c | 37.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Bakersfield Condors | 58c | 37.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 35.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed San Diego Gulls | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked San Diego Gulls | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed San Diego Gulls | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad77…3d8ebacked San Diego Gulls | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 24.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed San Diego Gulls | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed San Diego Gulls | 65c | 19.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.