Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa45b675522b716c79de57b31216080ab52692883244687da32a261263041ec7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 25c | 482.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 362.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 73c | 281.26$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 74c | 207.54$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 29c | 146.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 33c | 139.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 119.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 12c | 97.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 75c | 81.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 76.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 20c | 64.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 311 | 19.6%61 W · 250 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 50.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 64c | 47.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 46.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 34.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 79c | 31.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 22.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 16.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…a7f7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.