Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38830d9427076eb28200b1d5ba41ba9ec9cca57519e40995f8f717f754eeb5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 779.49$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 54c | 527.53$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 428$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 43c | 229.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 209.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 62c | 163.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 162$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 133.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 109.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 97.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 94.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 24c | 92.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 89.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 50c | 88.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 55c | 78.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 75.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 55c | 72.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 47c | 65.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 41c | 48.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 46.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 42.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 56c | 41.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 38.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 33.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 33.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 32.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 58c | 28.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 26.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 41c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 58c | 24.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 50c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.