Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46d4b09a9e2a2bd71a2ee09c9d8a315f93a1edb0b58fbaf0fbc023d443d65fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,726 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7d6…4336backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 0c | 18,948$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 431.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 426.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 39c | 373.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 274.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 268.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 238.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 222.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 196.24$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 184.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed Yes | 24c | 178$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 25c | 176.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 159.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 151.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 128.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 76c | 127.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 35c | 126.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 126.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 125.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 17c | 122.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 25c | 99.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 92.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 91.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 25c | 91.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 91.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 89.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 81.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 81.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 56c | 73.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 40c | 72.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 72.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…3425backed Yes | 29c | 68.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 68c | 68.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 17c | 66.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 79c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 70c | 57.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 18c | 56.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 68c | 56.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 53.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 60c | 53.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 52.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…c706backed No | 78c | 51.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 49.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 48.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…2b33backed Yes | 32c | 47.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 35c | 45.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 44.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 44.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 41.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 74c | 40.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 69c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 36.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…6ec9backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 71c | 35.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…22ccbacked Yes | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…ec42backed No | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 75c | 32.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 78c | 32.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…e93fbacked No | 64c | 31.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 64c | 31.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 48c | 30.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed No | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 61c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 66c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 74c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 75c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 73c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 73c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.