Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c65829caf46242d3f0fefd0af500000011d82ba40890703d0e8750e3f9ef8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x133c…54e3backed Yes | 49c | 1,007$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4a…335abacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…7a06backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7654…9e1fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 687.77$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 19c | 414.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 75c | 396.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 390.21$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 386.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 78c | 370.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.53 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 342.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 335.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 13c | 327.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 44c | 308.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 53c | 300.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 299.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 32c | 286.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…60c9backed No | 69c | 276.19$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…a5fabacked Yes | 38c | 262.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 75c | 233.33$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 48c | 225$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 31c | 170.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 169.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 51c | 162$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 63c | 159.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 69c | 144.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 134.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 48c | 122$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 120.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 40c | 116.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 47c | 115.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 114.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 64c | 109.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 56c | 99.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 29c | 98.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 69c | 95.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 90.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 83.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 38c | 79.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 72.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 71.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 71.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 44c | 55.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 53.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 48c | 52.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 50.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 32c | 50.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 57c | 48.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 48.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…2621backed Yes | 36c | 47.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 60c | 45.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 43.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 41.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 46c | 41.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked Yes | 64c | 39.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 37.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…c15dbacked No | 67c | 36.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…2783backed No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 39c | 32.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 33c | 31.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 49c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…5f63backed No | 53c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb016…c89ebacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 52c | 26.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…9df3backed No | 64c | 25.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2b…2e65backed No | 65c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…f4d3backed No | 59c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…25a1backed No | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 58c | 17.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 17.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…0264backed No | 64c | 16.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 70c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…717abacked No | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 76cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.