Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7d2d04b8c1da52cee8740c0b608c7a9e2563821e250f436db5d00ec6c06854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,319 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 10,581$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,674$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,589$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 1,006$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 676.47$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 508.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 27c | 508.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 76c | 329.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 312.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 297.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 289.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 16c | 276.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 60c | 270.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 254.29$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 17c | 239.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…6faebacked Yes | 6c | 230.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 207.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 11c | 203.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 200.91$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…75d5backed Yes | 10c | 190.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 188.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 170.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 17c | 168.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 18c | 139$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 18c | 137.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 137.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 71c | 137.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 134.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 126.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 16c | 111.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 109.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 99.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 99.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked Yes | 12c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 90.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 28c | 84.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 84.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 82.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…7f8cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 31c | 66.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 21c | 59.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 56.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 63c | 53.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 30c | 53.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 51.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 31c | 49.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…34b0backed No | 77c | 45.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 30c | 40.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 66c | 38.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 34c | 37.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 32c | 37.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…6327backed No | 79c | 35.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…cf1ebacked No | 74c | 35.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 30c | 33.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 31.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 40c | 30.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 29.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed No | 68c | 29.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 40c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 71c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed No | 70c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 77c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 64c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 74c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked No | 74c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…8eb5backed No | 67c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…f098backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.