Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4844f028d62e19b036631444449fdcc7fb54435b2ed2689f842768ff503f436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 4,396$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.46 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 2,481$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.36 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed No | 72c | 1,788$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.41 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 913.8$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.59 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 15c | 799.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 73c | 691.97$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.03 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 22c | 427.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 426$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 26c | 409$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 17c | 336.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 334$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 69c | 240.94$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 198.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 151.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 29c | 115.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 71c | 108.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…3dbebacked No | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 21c | 97.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 26c | 81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 73.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 76c | 60.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…e94cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 22c | 45.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 40.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed No | 70c | 40.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…d7e3backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 64c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee2…e71dbacked No | 75c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.