Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4887d8bd2cff95896c326813956b59c055a629090580852507acdacb79333a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 465.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 71c | 352.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 306.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 23c | 274.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 230.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 48c | 148.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 135$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 120.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 119$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…04edbacked Yes | 11c | 105.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 15c | 89.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 87.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 79.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 72.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 22c | 69.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 67.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…4353backed No | 75c | 66.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 60.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 65c | 58.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 51c | 48.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 49c | 40.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 50c | 38.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 43c | 32.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 61c | 30.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…3235backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 68c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 74c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.