Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa49d9b9323bb79bdbc0ac4ad29dc116c5bd6113ab9939a808d94a62f30045c55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 704.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 7c | 448.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 313.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 288.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 188$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 11c | 171.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 157.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 151.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 27c | 150.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 19c | 141.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 139.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 136.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 121.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 109.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 80c | 104.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 101.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 101.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 100.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…12c6backed Yes | 17c | 98.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 96.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 92.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 88.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 80.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…71debacked Yes | 28c | 72.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 16c | 67.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 67.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 23c | 64.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…61c2backed No | 78c | 63.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 43c | 54.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 40.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked No | 76c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 67c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b86…22f1backed No | 77c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…7ae0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…3979backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.