Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x641f272c3c0d8824275175e34b6fd6167a93ac7f570fa6363b7e2c3760adde4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,073 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 3c | 1,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 6c | 668.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 2c | 663.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 423.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 77c | 326.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 299.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 6c | 268.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 40c | 248.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 41c | 238.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 44c | 228.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 63c | 220.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 207.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 193.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 190.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed No | 57c | 174.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 64c | 158.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 149.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 135.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 132.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 31c | 127.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 126.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 57c | 121.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 51c | 118.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 117.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 64c | 106.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 106.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 103.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 72c | 101.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 41c | 94.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 91.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 58c | 89.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 85.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 85.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 84.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 80.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 38c | 80.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 79.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 73.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 37c | 72.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 62.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 62.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 80c | 58.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 53.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 26c | 50.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 50.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 61c | 48.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes | 78c | 45.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 45c | 44.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 43.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 58c | 43.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 41.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 31c | 37.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 38c | 36.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 50c | 36.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 41c | 33.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 33.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 51c | 31.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed No | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 40c | 28.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 48c | 24.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 24.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed No | 63c | 18.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.