Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ae0d1c85c89ee51778123a779fcedcfe346433c67459df249c0e5c5afa90b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,455 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 24c | 689.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 27c | 324.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 29c | 306.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 26c | 298.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 293.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 215.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…eab9backed No | 76c | 198.5$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 196.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 193.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 24c | 190.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 80c | 190.25$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 31c | 163.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 153.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 20c | 152.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 28c | 145.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 129.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 31c | 127.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 116.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 110.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 102.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 30c | 102.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 88.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 88.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 81.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 29c | 75.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 28c | 72.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 26c | 69.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 76c | 66.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 30c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 29c | 64.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 32c | 62.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 28c | 62.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 79c | 56.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 55.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 54.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 54.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 54.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 52.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 50.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 40.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c52…c733backed No | 75c | 38.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d0…c5bbbacked No | 70c | 36.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…cee9backed Yes | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 28.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked No | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 74c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 75c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…f123backed No | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 76c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…c8dcbacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 75c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.