TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,455 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c1,101$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.031389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes24c689.04$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4447442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes27c324.02$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.958061.3%49 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes29c306.79$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.973847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes26c298.04$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.014030%12 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c293.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.272,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c215.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fdf…eab9backed No76c198.5$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.64875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c196.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c193.16$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.481,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes24c190.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4533349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No80c190.25$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0524569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5432444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes25c170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4327540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c166.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3313215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes31c163.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c153.92$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes20c152.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2888628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes28c145.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3718035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No72c129.13$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.571,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes31c127.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.574630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c116.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.532,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes28c110.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8930442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c102.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.052,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9777…3761backed Yes30c102.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.824141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c88.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.072,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c88.75$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes28c81.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9315939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9418842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed Yes29c75.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.813748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes28c72.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.223135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes26c69.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb20e…58cebacked No76c66.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.142286.4%19 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes30c66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.485841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes28c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes29c64.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.855935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5535…ce00backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Yes32c62.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206717.9%12 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed Yes28c62.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.444330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No73c59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1331868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed No79c56.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9438547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c55.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c54.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.183,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes27c54.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes33c54.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1842438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No74c52.32$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c50.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.557545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6230…6debbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No73c48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72d…9e9ebacked No70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.863987.2%34 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes26c41.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No70c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.254143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c40.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.729137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c52…c733backed No75c38.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.746100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf1…c28cbacked No76c36.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.843565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d0…c5bbbacked No70c36.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce0…f095backed No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712889.3%25 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9aa0…cee9backed Yes32c31.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c28.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x820b…30f5backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3d…f35abacked No74c26.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.872491.7%22 W · 2 L+5.8wins+0.24per pick67cpaid+34.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6de1…5301backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.676985.5%59 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x684f…cef7backed No70c21.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.435435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5518351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5944…a957backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.043976.9%30 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe549…a14ebacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed No76c19.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.821866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eff…f370backed No76c19.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.821181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick71cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c19.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.721,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No74c17.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.647375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No75c17.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.347771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c05…f123backed No76c16.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5390…1649backed No76c15.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.861681.3%13 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…4f99backed No76c15.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.793775.7%28 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8abc…9e55backed No74c14.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.84872.9%35 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…c8dcbacked No75c14.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d6…62a5backed No75c13.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.382075%15 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.