Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fea9512fbf692afc5dbd0e71d59069d20792788c1fc78686761b30ff7d7eee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 243.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 5c | 225$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 198.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 34c | 181.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 159.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 149.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 22c | 130.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 115.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 20c | 108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 97.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 70c | 89.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 29c | 87.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 82.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 79.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 78.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 78.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 75.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 30c | 64.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 59.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 56.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 51.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 50.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 80c | 43.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 42.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed No | 72c | 31.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 73c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed No | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…aa50backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 66c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 76c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed No | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…b7adbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc52…fcc3backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 80c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.