Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a79f8bc8d99d058f7ea7402ad1b687f9b45a53ee5c7eeaf2e303370d774ad66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 655.84$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.02 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 249.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 59c | 247.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 15c | 238.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.54 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 68c | 225.25$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 65c | 216$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 24c | 175.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 56c | 163.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked Yes | 56c | 160.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 60c | 155.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 132.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 127.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 14c | 121.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 25c | 109.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 17c | 96.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 95.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 95.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 23c | 87.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 84.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 81.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 81.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 64c | 78.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…e224backed No | 68c | 77.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 76.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 19c | 66.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 65.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 26c | 58.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 54.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 21c | 51.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…4459backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 62c | 48.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 46.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 25c | 44.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 26c | 38.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 36.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…5aaabacked No | 49c | 36.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 32.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 78c | 31.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…bd23backed Yes | 46c | 30.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 48c | 29.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 25.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 22.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed Yes | 79c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 17.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 77c | 17.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 16.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…e3c0backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 71c | 14.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.