Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40c66485b2e392588383973377d063df0025eae7f297825bd6d968cb4be8963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 4c | 451.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 62c | 241.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 135.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 39c | 124.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 44c | 116.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 44c | 91.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 56c | 88.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 84.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 77.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 64.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 37c | 60.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 47c | 60.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 42c | 59.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 58c | 51.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 26c | 50.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 31c | 49.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 47.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 46.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 41.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 39.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 35.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 34.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 33.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 63c | 31.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 31.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 64c | 29.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 25.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 60c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…e3c0backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.