Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5135d098477fa48fb88ac5dcf3fd8a083cefc7cd44f5ece5d29c8675bd3119f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Svitolinaof Svitolina, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 56c | 583.84$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Svitolina | 43c | 284.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Svitolina | 77c | 259.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shnaider | 35c | 255.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Svitolina | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 394 | 31%122 W · 272 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Shnaider | 32c | 221.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Svitolina | 44c | 103.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Shnaider | 56c | 101$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Shnaider | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Svitolina | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Svitolina | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Svitolina | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Svitolina | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Women's: Elina Svitolina vs Diana ShnaiderSvitolina won
- Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs ShnaiderSvitolina won
- Svitolina vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Svitolina vs. Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.