UFC · resolved market
Will Azamat Murzakanov win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa531c66a259657ddb88df2cae0ca657247bbf5924c43ea8878d94fcfd8ed54a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 62c | 1,833$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.11 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Yes | 36c | 697.16$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 65c | 415.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…f7c5backed Yes | 36c | 365.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 46c | 180.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Yes | 34c | 140.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…13adbacked Yes | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes | 41c | 70.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 36c | 69.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…a9c1backed Yes | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…420cbacked Yes | 35c | 55.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…8525backed Yes | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bf…0a74backed Yes | 40c | 47.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcd…d3b4backed Yes | 35c | 41.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Azamat Murzakanov win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Paulo Costa won
- Will Paulo Costa win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.