UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15e80ea0c60a5e80f115efed937425f40dcb163adb9ac2181a6f9af89bdac9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 57c | 2,927$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Yes | 70c | 1,403$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 44c | 487.24$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…8715backed No | 55c | 444.36$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 42c | 351.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…9b86backed No | 56c | 342.32$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 45c | 278.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 45c | 276.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked No | 58c | 258.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a2…ef04backed No | 55c | 242.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 42c | 207.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 50c | 194.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 43c | 174.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed No | 57c | 140.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 54c | 133.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed No | 57c | 117.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 46c | 85.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 46c | 71.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 67c | 68.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…7972backed No | 54c | 53.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Yes | 48c | 50.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 45c | 43.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 47c | 40.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…3077backed Yes | 73c | 40.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…5af8backed No | 55c | 39.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…c07fbacked No | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes | 50c | 36.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Yes | 49c | 36.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…2487backed No | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd7…e7a5backed No | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed Yes | 49c | 21.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Paulo Costa won
- Will Azamat Murzakanov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paulo Costa win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.