South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa540cb38a94e37925cab969e21d2da150d4aed343722afa3d22fcb1ddfffbf29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 4,875$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.75 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 6c | 4,124$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829c…6cf6backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 2,885$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.96 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 1,590$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 17c | 918.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 80c | 833.31$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 14c | 803.53$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 8c | 728.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 706.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 704.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 599.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 18c | 550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 3c | 366.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 362.59$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 16c | 359$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…7180backed Yes | 16c | 324.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 7c | 300.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Yes | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 16c | 268$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 21c | 238.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 12c | 232.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 20c | 232.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Yes | 19c | 181.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 9c | 175.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 75c | 165.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 25c | 149.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 15c | 142$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 130.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Yes | 10c | 117.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 23c | 109.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 15c | 100.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 37cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…0e76backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…8f4fbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 17c | 89.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 65.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…08bcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9a…f2a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 44.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 80c | 32.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-12?this page
- Will Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-02-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.