South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426bbbcb62ef9022426b9c7e6cab3e07103f112156aa37034214152b5cc4a0de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 3,326$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.85 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 45c | 3,072$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 2,629$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.7 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,468$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 2,362$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.49 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 71c | 2,243$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.96 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 2,197$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.44 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 71c | 1,978$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked No | 59c | 1,696$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.25 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 968.79$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 31c | 707.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.33 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…9e54backed No | 71c | 631.58$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 627.84$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 28c | 559.75$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 18c | 549.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 17c | 466.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 29c | 441.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…2d79backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed Yes | 30c | 302.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 297.67$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 21c | 294$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 232.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…9e79backed Yes | 23c | 231.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 29c | 204$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Yes | 32c | 185.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 28c | 178.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 20c | 157.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 145.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 70c | 143.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 126.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 24c | 116.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 32c | 114.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 114.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed No | 72c | 99.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 79.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 33c | 70.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 67.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…742dbacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…fcd4backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed No | 64c | 26.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed No | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked No | 80c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 76c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…96a4backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked No | 71c | 14.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-12?No won
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-02-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.