WNBA · resolved market
Liberty vs Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5452f5bfa84f752eeb8f56c915b9f2c1f3c1a870b26c307ea937528a4fe3fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Libertyof Liberty, Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9537…dc8fbacked Liberty | 61c | 34,265$20,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,363.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…1b5cbacked Fever | 39c | 31,810$12,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,405.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece9…75a4backed Fever | 39c | 2,455$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Fever | 34c | 2,448$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.01 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Liberty | 70c | 2,118$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fever | 30c | 1,648$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.52 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Liberty | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Liberty | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Liberty | 79c | 893$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…05f0backed Fever | 57c | 725.69$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Liberty | 63c | 663$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fever | 32c | 650$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.51 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Liberty | 61c | 648.34$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.85 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Liberty | 79c | 500.42$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Fever | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fever | 37c | 363.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…906cbacked Fever | 48c | 310.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Liberty | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Fever | 45c | 199.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Liberty | 55c | 145.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Fever | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…8519backed Liberty | 59c | 112.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Liberty | 62c | 108.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Fever | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Fever | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Liberty | 28c | 90.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Liberty | 62c | 72.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…7efbbacked Fever | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Fever | 24c | 45.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Liberty | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fever | 57c | 44.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Liberty | 55c | 41.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Fever | 42c | 36.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Liberty | 45c | 36.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Liberty | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Liberty | 77c | 28.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.