Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa54d9860b6904a1197cf5ec8e14dbe7a64c6b86f17dff367de42092a6d7d8223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 4,240$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.12 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 25c | 3,089$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,772$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.8 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 51c | 1,423$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…e217backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 23c | 800.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.43 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 42c | 523.81$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 357.68$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 45c | 218.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 56c | 158.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 55c | 99.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 84.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…2623backed Under | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 52c | 48.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 51c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…fc8cbacked Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 69c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…9046backed Under | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.