Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba8defa13f653482467b9e7eb6d3dd6ed94de3c285b968348ecfc2d891ee920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 3,994$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.14 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 55c | 1,020$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Over | 47c | 998.45$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.1 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 37c | 829$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.37 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 734.72$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.43 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a2…a105backed Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 46c | 427.95$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.62 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 38c | 265.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 50c | 232.31$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 61c | 225$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 49c | 204.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 55c | 180.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 43c | 167.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 28c | 166.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 143.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 55c | 124.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 28c | 85.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 47c | 82.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 29c | 81.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Under | 80c | 75.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…c30fbacked Under | 61c | 43.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 46c | 43.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…64dabacked Under | 46c | 38.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 55c | 26.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed Over | 75c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.