MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa571df91e6daa7871b0ccda4f1322a35e199b20181d8852194dd168450dff1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Over | 53c | 3,060$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.63 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 2,217$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.92 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 1,359$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.83 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 901.51$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.73 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 870.24$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.41 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 47c | 484.1$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 431.29$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 325.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.87 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 80c | 244.06$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 226.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Under | 48c | 202.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 47c | 182.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 178.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 170.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 48c | 157.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…578abacked Over | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…1b0dbacked Under | 12c | 107.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 54.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 49c | 46.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Under | 48c | 45.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 47c | 38.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed Under | 48c | 37.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 37.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 48c | 33.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…b584backed Over | 54c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.