South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5823a6cc13262a0d73d1fe92786fba241bc507cd9f2d517e9edba48e32fea12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,151 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 39c | 1,073$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.5 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 341.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 233.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 58c | 165.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 61c | 128.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 60c | 126.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 95.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 46c | 94.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…c7a6backed Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…2995backed Under | 28c | 72.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 59c | 47.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 76c | 46.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…3ee0backed Over | 60c | 38.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 39c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…8336backed Over | 61c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.