South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9b149eecd17e27ba31481f548421b650a10a818c7752710a2411fa9ad28187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,029 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,894$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.82 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 32c | 936.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.04 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed Over | 32c | 796.62$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +111%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 565.38$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.99 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 68c | 411.76$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 396$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…eaa0backed Under | 68c | 360.43$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 67c | 349.98$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.99 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…058cbacked Under | 68c | 334.88$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 32c | 312.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 32c | 286.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 281.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 214.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 189.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 29c | 145.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 32c | 112.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…a382backed Under | 68c | 99.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked Under | 38c | 37.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Under | 30c | 36.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Over | 32c | 32.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…c1cbbacked Under | 69c | 25.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…c7a6backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…7187backed Over | 77c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.