Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5891a34e9e78175f1a15b20bbd615860b137c5bcdcf54953e096682d85b5c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 377.83$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 290.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 217.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 160.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 136$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 39c | 103.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 101.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 100.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 99.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 97.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 86.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 86.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 66.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 62.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 36c | 50.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 31.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 62c | 25.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…a024backed No | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 22.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked Yes | 76c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…32d0backed Yes | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 71cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 67c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 60c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.