Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59065366a0bcb71ae11c681825811c0df158ed6c90e52cbe87ced98e6fb6eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 8,769$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.68 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Yes | 53c | 2,402$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 25c | 2,042$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.88 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 17c | 1,652$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.49 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked No | 19c | 1,361$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.56 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 21c | 1,034$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.41 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 3c | 631.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 32c | 531.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.5 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 331.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 19c | 252.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 41c | 234.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…3d96backed No | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 54c | 220.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 65c | 157.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 142.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 18c | 128.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 40c | 116.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 69c | 98.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…1528backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 54c | 81.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 35c | 76.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…d3bbbacked No | 29c | 58.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 50.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 38c | 46.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 24c | 44.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked No | 29c | 37.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes | 31c | 33.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.