Tennis · resolved market
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Ekaterina Kazionova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a504fa147c57e6c66b5864b090d096ebd4d02c3d69b11b62cb8b4fb2ba5fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arantxa Rusof Arantxa Rus, Ekaterina Kazionova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4699…5051backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 7c | 3,130$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 21c | 2,555$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.11 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 21c | 1,994$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.34 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…b709backed Arantxa Rus | 76c | 1,313$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.54 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Arantxa Rus | 75c | 846.96$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Ekaterina Kazionova | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 18c | 353.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 366 | 21.6%79 W · 287 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Arantxa Rus | 76c | 292.54$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Arantxa Rus | 76c | 291.15$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Ekaterina Kazionova | 14c | 284.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 24c | 225.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…ac97backed Arantxa Rus | 76c | 131.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 25c | 127.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Ekaterina Kazionova | 24c | 113.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…2aacbacked Ekaterina Kazionova | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 22c | 94.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…ef4abacked Arantxa Rus | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 17c | 79.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 22c | 75.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf188…4a83backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 21c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 124 | 23.4%29 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Arantxa Rus | 80c | 62.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 235 | 81.7%192 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 80cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fef0backed Arantxa Rus | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 226 | 34.5%78 W · 148 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…a760backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Arantxa Rus | 74c | 51.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Ekaterina Kazionova | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Ekaterina Kazionova | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Arantxa Rus | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…5906backed Ekaterina Kazionova | 32c | 48.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Arantxa Rus | 77c | 48.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked Arantxa Rus | 73c | 29.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Arantxa Rus | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 113 | 72.6%82 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Arantxa Rus | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Arantxa Rus | 75c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Arantxa Rus | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Ekaterina Kazionovathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Rus vs KazionovaRus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.