Tennis · resolved market
Auger-Aliassime vs. Altmaier: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5d6a51a52fc59cc55e2ebf1c43ee548b322efa602d77d75eeb4c7a7d63c5ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 51c | 3,885$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.92 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 2,846$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.98 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 895.93$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.97 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 439.96$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…1cd5backed Over | 50c | 293.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 51c | 93.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 52c | 75.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 48c | 26.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Altmaier: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Altmaier: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel AltmaierFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs AltmaierAltmaier won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)Altmaier won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Altmaier (+2.5)Altmaier won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.