Tennis · resolved market
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71c96e4828dfe1c2b139b81e6d7160e64e615383b3bab358f998444c846d3831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 2,760$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.6 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 2,701$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.36 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…34b1backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 2,647$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.39 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 1,300$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 1,045$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.39 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 498.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 436.32$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 417$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 319$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 253$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 242$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under 3.5 | 39c | 234$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 208$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Over 3.5 | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 174.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 264 | 57.6%152 W · 112 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 173$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 120.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 112.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 104$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…96f4backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 77.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…4874backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…297bbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 31.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…d6fabacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Altmaier: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Altmaier: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel AltmaierFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs AltmaierAltmaier won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)Altmaier won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Altmaier (+2.5)Altmaier won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.