Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ddc16c48cd84b2a76be7e9a88e1807afc1fa09d93717f48120627f117ecb8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 7c | 1,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 21c | 506.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 71c | 317.62$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 7c | 283.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…222abacked Over | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 11c | 103.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 92.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 67c | 74.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 24c | 67.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 66c | 64.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Over | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.