Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636d66aca7856cd6c84225e2657b9cb7d9f3819436abea9f7704a299808e377e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,287 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 5,130$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 18c | 1,004$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 38c | 988.79$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.74 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 80c | 982.15$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 73c | 742.07$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.41 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 76c | 711.42$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 14c | 671.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.67 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 73c | 505.75$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.2 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…875bbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +2,733.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…4273backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.67per pick | 8cpaid | +2,025%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 43c | 456.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +380%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 9cpaid | +454.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Over | 72c | 399.9$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.93 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…7e3abacked Over | 25c | 340.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 321.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 32c | 249.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 224.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 45c | 224$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 39c | 199.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 51c | 195$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 37c | 163.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 50c | 155$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 188 | 58.5%110 W · 78 L | +16.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 26c | 145.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 67c | 144.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 12c | 125.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +126%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Under | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 109.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 35c | 102.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…03efbacked Under | 44c | 100.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 61c | 90.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…c6debacked Over | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…8626backed Over | 15c | 65.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 59c | 61.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Over | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…0a1cbacked Under | 76c | 57.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…bf74backed Over | 20c | 56.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 22c | 53.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 25c | 51.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…d1cfbacked Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…83fcbacked Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Over | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ce…0f40backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Under | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 37c | 44.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 25c | 43.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 43.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 41.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 54c | 41.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 53c | 31.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b817backed Under | 46c | 23.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.