Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5deda1dd72162646be82ca61f7936fe6f34ca37e7e8c1f8099f72d7270a1483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 527.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 259.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 232.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 197$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 65c | 179.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 161$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 157.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 64c | 156.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 141$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked No | 22c | 135.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 75c | 129.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 25c | 114.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 103.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 96.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 88.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 82.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 72.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 65.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Yes | 58c | 63.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 59.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 40c | 49.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 44c | 45.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 77c | 45.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 45c | 44.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 43.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Yes | 44c | 43.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 74c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 36.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 36.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 70c | 35.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 35.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8c36backed Yes | 43c | 32.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 35c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 36c | 30.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 30.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 67c | 26.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 24.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06e…02d9backed No | 69c | 23.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 20.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed No | 71c | 18.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 18.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.