Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ed8f6fd5ba6a5f458b78601aa82f473899a8613de0c0a1d713811c3cab41e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Over | 41c | 8,678$3,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 5,333$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.21 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 3,784$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.35 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 1,474$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 1,416$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.5 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 1,271$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.24 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 56c | 750.14$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.63 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 55c | 689.1$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.21 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 44c | 688.01$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.38 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 655.09$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.5 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 59c | 655.09$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.5 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 595.12$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.91 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 59c | 545.16$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.64 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 516$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 467.15$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 418.12$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 40c | 372.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.47 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 59c | 318.8$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 53c | 307.97$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 59c | 283.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed Under | 59c | 247.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 39c | 214.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 61c | 204.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 59c | 203.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 36c | 194.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 59c | 170.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 33c | 170.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 59c | 168$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 76c | 166.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 75c | 158.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 136.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Over | 63c | 90.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 57c | 87.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 58c | 82.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 75c | 78.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…cc57backed Under | 21c | 67.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 61c | 65.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Over | 58c | 61.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 54c | 46.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Over | 74c | 45.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 56c | 43.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 62c | 41.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Under | 59c | 38.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Over | 59c | 36.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 55c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 79c | 34.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 45c | 33.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Over | 79c | 33.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 57c | 32.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 56c | 31.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Over | 72c | 26.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 46c | 25.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed Over | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…0cb2backed Under | 59c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -9.8wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Under | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…a9b2backed Over | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.