Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ee37bf119ced50e12e2c8ace6544531babda6a9a26ce59b2166f6b961b1547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof Los Angeles FC, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,132 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Austin FC | 74c | 740.85$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Austin FC | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…c195backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 384.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 350.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Los Angeles FC | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Austin FC | 74c | 220.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Austin FC | 73c | 200.46$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Los Angeles FC | 30c | 193.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Los Angeles FC | 25c | 172.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Austin FC | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 158$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Los Angeles FC | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Los Angeles FC | 25c | 124.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Los Angeles FC | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Los Angeles FC | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles FC | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Los Angeles FC | 25c | 59.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Austin FC | 73c | 31.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Austin FC | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.