Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad8d716549949669671c7568ab8cabe33eca106e2454955fc737deba59f44a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,868 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 6,911$3,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 40c | 6,179$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 2,145$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 1,851$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.28 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 62c | 1,730$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 46c | 989.91$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 40c | 754.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 38c | 720$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 46c | 663.27$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 61c | 611.82$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 602.19$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.77 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 545.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.76 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 445.12$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 41c | 401.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 80c | 207.34$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 46c | 158.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…5dc8backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 22c | 118$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 42c | 103.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 46c | 65.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Over | 80c | 53.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 23c | 44.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 59c | 44.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 57c | 26.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.