Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5fd4924e4b7ded2217dc2a9ea2c21c2863d126239236861d64dea37f7e80498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 31c | 494.52$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 61c | 259.36$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 229.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 152.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 146.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 56c | 86.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…37f8backed Yes | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 58c | 49.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 22c | 48.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed No | 41c | 48.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 41c | 39.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Yes | 58c | 33.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 58c | 33.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 58c | 33.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Yes | 58c | 33.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 41c | 31.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 59c | 22.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.