Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969436e1bb8a1868726d8a664cab44c9a423a88456063e71240a59e2b4f96812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 50c | 3,221$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 33c | 2,055$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.95 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 1,926$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.97 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 38c | 1,800$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,753$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Over | 39c | 999.97$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 71c | 484.38$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 64c | 432.65$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.78 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 63c | 411.9$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 36c | 400.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 63c | 386.17$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 52c | 367.94$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.33 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 34c | 353.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 341.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 16c | 336.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 334.79$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 51c | 276.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 64c | 246.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…5546backed Over | 58c | 200.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f89…e85bbacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 183.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 66c | 169.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 66c | 169.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 66c | 169$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 67c | 163.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 49c | 158.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 67c | 130.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 63c | 97.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 89.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 49c | 79.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 78.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 44c | 68.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 65.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Over | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Over | 38c | 35.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Over | 43c | 30.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Under | 65c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…5cddbacked Over | 50c | 28.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…8531backed Under | 72c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 50c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 64c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.